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National health care spending grew faster during 2014 compared to the previous five
years. This growth was driven primarily by the major coverage expansions under the ACA,
particularly for Medicaid and private health insurance (Martin, Hartman, Benson, Catlin, and the
National Health Expenditure Accounts Team, 2016). Growth in national health costs for
employer groups was modest during 2014 (Claxton, Rae, Panchal, Whitmore, Damico, and
Kenward, 2014; Kaiser/HRET, 2015), while costs in the individual market increased
significantly as people shifted to ACA compliant plans, and as previously uninsured or higher
risk individuals obtained insurance in the individual market.
National health costs for employer groups were stable during 2015 continuing a pattern
of more modest growth (Claxton, Rae, Panchal, Whitmore, Damico, Kenward, and Long, 2015;
Kaiser/HRET, 2016). Growth in health spending was slower during 2016. This change was
broad-based, as spending by payer and by service decelerated. Slower enrollment trends under
the ACA also contributed to this slowdown (Hartman, Martin, Espinosa, Catlin, and the National
Health Expenditure Accounts Team, 2018). Health care spending slowed during 2017. This
slower growth was primarily due to reductions in the use and intensity of healthcare services for
hospital care, physician services, and retail drugs (Martin, Hartman, Washington, Catlin, and the
National Health Expenditure Accounts Team, 2019). Health care spending increased during
2018. This increase was driven by growth in Medicare and private insurance spending (Hartman,
Martin, Benson, Catlin, and the National Health Expenditure Accounts Team, 2020).
National health care spending during 2019 grew at a similar rate as 2018 (Martin,
Hartman, Lassman, Catlin, and the National Health Expenditure Accounts Team, 2021). Recent
estimates of national health care spending for 2020 reported a significant increase in health care
spending compared to 2019. Total health care spending increased by 9.7 percent. This was
primarily due to a significant increase in federal spending in response to the COVID-19
pandemic (Hartman, Martin, Washington, Catlin, and the National Health Expenditure Accounts
Team, 2022). However, health care spending for private health insurance declined by 1.2 percent
during 2020 due to reduced or delayed health care services in response to the COVID-19
pandemic (Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, 2022). National health care spending
slowed during 2021. This was primary due to the decline in federal health care spending that
followed the increase in federal spending during the COVID-19 pandemic (Martin, Hartman,
Benson, Catlin, and the National Health Expenditure Accounts Team, 2023).
Estimates based on national health expenditure data suggest that national health care
spending is expected to grow by about 5.4 percent per year during 2022 to 2031. Enrollment in
health insurance coverage and health care spending are projected to grow over the next decade
(Keehan, Fiore, Poisal, Cuckler, Sisko, Smith, Madison, and Rennie, 2023).
The cost of health care continues to create significant economic pressure on
comprehensive health insurers. For example, if Utah’s comprehensive health insurers had kept
premiums at 2013 levels and costs had continued to increase, by 2022, the industry’s loss ratio
would be approximately 135. In other words, the industry would be paying out nearly $1.35 in
claims for every $1.00 in premium. No business can afford to lose money at such rates for long,
so comprehensive insurers responded by raising premiums to levels that would cover their costs.
In addition to claim costs, comprehensive insurers also have to pay general administrative costs