Prepared Testimony for the Hearing “The Disappearing Corporate Income Tax”
Jason Furman
Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy
Harvard Kennedy School and Department of Economics, Harvard University
U.S. House of Representatives
Committee on Ways and Means
February 11, 2020
Chairman Neal, Ranking Member Brady, and Members of the Committee:
Thank you for the opportunity to testify on the important topic of the disappearing corporate
income tax. I am a Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at the Harvard Kennedy
School and in the Economics Department at Harvard University. I am also a Non-resident Senior
Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. I do research and teaching on a
wide range of economic policy issues and I have worked on business tax reform, in particular,
for more than fifteen years.
In my testimony today I will make four points:
1. Corporate tax collections are very low both in historical perspective and compared with
other countries. This contributes to the overall low level of revenue.
2. The 2017 tax law (Public Law 115-97) is a major reason for this revenue loss, with its
total cost likely to be even larger than was estimated when the law originally passed.
3. There is no evidence that the 2017 tax law has made a substantial contribution to
investment or longer-term economic growth. In fact, business investment growth has
slowed to nearly a halt while economic growth has been propped up by increases in
government spending.
4. Going forward, a well-designed business tax reform could both increase revenue and
encourage more investment and innovation.
I will now elaborate on each of these points.
2
Point #1: Corporate tax collections are very low in historical perspective and compared
with other countries. This contributes to the overall low level of revenue
In 2019
1
, the United States collected 1.1 percent of GDP in corporate income taxes, a number
that is projected to rise slightly over the next decade, assuming a number of tax increases phase.
As shown in Figure 1, this is near the lowest since the 1930s (outside of recessions or their
immediate aftermaths). U.S. corporate taxes are less than one half their historic average.
Figure 1
In 2018, the last year for which comparable data are available, corporate tax collections were
lower as a share of the economy in the United States than all but one of the advanced economies
in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as shown in Figure 2,
and were one third the unweighted average for other advanced OECD economies.
2
Figure 2
1
All budget numbers are for fiscal years.
2
Note that these figures do not account for tax revenue from pass-through businesses, which is collected through the
individual income tax code. Even including this revenue, however, U.S. business taxes would still be low in both
historical context and compared to other countries.
3
The low levels of corporate tax revenue are a major reason why overall federal revenue is very
low; at 16.3 percent of GDP in 2019 it was the lowest it has been in the past 50 years outside of
recessions and their aftermaths. By 2030, revenue will be 5 percent of GDP lower than
noninterest spending under the alternative fiscal scenario. If this gap did not change, it would be
consistent with the debt eventually rising to about 500 percent of GDP.
It is likely that future policymakers would—and should—act to prevent debt rising to
500 percent of GDP or more. It is uncertain, however, what steps they will take, and whether
they would include further changes to corporate or other business taxes. As a result, the fiscal
imbalance itself is an indirect source of uncertainty for America’s businesses, an uncertainty that
was exacerbated by the revenue losses caused by the 2017 tax law.
Point #2: The 2017 tax law contributed to this revenue loss, with its total cost likely to be
even larger than was estimated when the law originally passed
The 2017 tax law was originally projected to lose $1.5 trillion over the 2018 to 2027 budget
window, or $1.1 trillion including macroeconomic feedback (Joint Committee on Taxation [JCT]
2017b). CBO’ subsequent revisions imply an even higher cost of about $2.0 trillion and $1.5
trillion respectively. These projections are broadly consistent with actual revenue growth since
the law passed.
Projected revenue loss from over the ten-year budget window
At the time the 2017 tax law passed, the JCT estimated that it would result in $1.456 trillion of
revenue loss from 2018 to 2027 absent macroeconomic feedback with just over half of this
revenue loss attributable to tax cuts for corporations and passthroughs. The JCT estimated
$1.071 trillion in revenue loss taking into account “additional effects resulting from
macroeconomic analysis”. In work published with Robert Barro we estimated that
macroeconomic feedback would be somewhat smaller than JCT, resulting in revenue loss about
$100 billion higher than in JCT’s estimates (Barro and Furman 2018).
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) did a re-estimation of the revenue impacts of the 2017
tax law that was based on both an updated economic and budget baseline and also based on
“information about the implementation of the tax act learned in recent months,” including the
implementation of and taxpayer response to various business provisions. The re-estimate
increased the estimated revenue loss over the 2018 to 2027 period to $1.890 trillion absent
macroeconomic feedback and $1.369 trillion with macroeconomic feedback (CBO 2018).
CBO (2020) further raised its estimates of the costs of the 2017 tax law in its January 2020
Economic and Budget Outlook, estimating that its cost would be roughly $110 billion higher
from 2020 to 2029 as a result of a reduction in “its projection of the amount of income subject to
tax under certain provisions related to international business activities. Those changes, which
lowered corporate receipts, reflect the implementation of the law (including regulations
announced by the Internal Revenue Service over the past year), new tax and financial reporting
data, and updated information on taxpayers’ responses.”
4
Overall the way the law has been implemented and the way taxpayers have responded to it has
increased CBO’s initial cost estimates by about 35 percent.
Moreover, CBO’s cost estimates—by long-standing tradition—reflect the provisions passed by
Congress. The law included numerous tax cuts that phase down or out (e.g., all the individual tax
cuts and business equipment expensing) and numerous tax increases that phase in (e.g.,
amortization of research and development [R&D], expanded limits on interest deductions, and
higher tax rates on low-taxed overseas income). If the 2019 provisions of the law were made
permanent the total cost would be about $700 billion higher before macroeconomic feedback
over the original 10-year window from 2018 to 2027 (Barro and Furman 2018)—and
substantially more than that over the new 2021-2030 budget window (CBO 2020)
Actual revenue performance since the law is consistent with it having a large cost
The evolution of revenue since the enactment of the 2017 tax law suggests that these revenue
estimates were accurate or perhaps even an understatement of the true cost of the law. Revenue
was 17.2 percent of GDP in 2017 and normally would have been expected to rise as a result of
economic performance since then. Instead it fell to 16.3 percent of GDP in 2019.
The revisions of the CBO forecasts since the passage of the 2017 tax law are consistent with the
view that its original revenue estimates were accurate or perhaps even an understatement of the
true cost of the law. CBO lowered its revenue baseline in April 2018 more than entirely due to
the passage of the 2017 tax law—economic and technical changes went in the other direction.
Since then CBO has lowered the revenue baseline further. In total, actual revenues in FY 2019
were $224 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) below CBO’s pre-tax law forecast, reflecting both the
revenue reduction they originally anticipated and additional revenue loss that has occurred
subsequently, as shown in Table 1. Projected revenues for 2020 are down by a similar amount.
Table 1
The fact that CBO’s January 2020 revenue baseline has fallen so much relative to the one it
published in June 2017 reflects a combination of two sets of factors. The first, and likely largest,
is unanticipated economic and technical developments that are unrelated to the tax law. In effect,
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Individual -89 -100 -26 -41 -115 -141
Corporate -68 -73 -46 -74 -114 -147
Customs duties 2 2 30 35 32 37
Other -42 -5 15 35 -28 30
Total -197 -176 -27 -46 -224 -221
Change Immediately
After Passage
Subsequent Change
Total Change
5
CBO’s June 2017 revenue baseline was too high. The second is that the tax law has resulted in
larger revenue reductions than originally estimated due to a combination of specific regulatory
implementation decisions and an improved understanding of the effect of the law, including but
likely not limited to the $110 billion explicitly identified by CBO.
Overall CBO currently projects total revenue of $41.4 trillion from 2018 to 2027, down $1.6
trillion from their $43.0 projection prior to the passage of the 2017 tax law. About half of that
total revenue shortfall is due to lower corporate taxes.
Point #3: There is no evidence that the 2017 tax law has made a substantial contribution to
investment or longer-term economic growth
GDP growth did not increase following the 2017 tax law: it was 2.4 percent in the eight quarters
leading up to the law and 2.4 percent in the eight quarters since the law, as shown in Figure 3.
The major private domestic components of GDP slowed in the two years since the 2017 tax law,
including slowing consumption growth, business fixed investment growth and residential
investment growth. In contrast, government expenditures and investments grew at a faster pace.
Figure 3
Growth in 2019 was 2.3 percent (all annual macroeconomic data are Q4/Q4), with the lowest
growth of business fixed investment excluding the volatile oil and mining category
3
and the
highest growth of federal spending since the end of the recession as shown in Figure 4.
3
In 2019, business fixed investment growth was negative, at -0.1 percent but the decline was driven by the volatile
categories of oil and mining equipment and structures. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) does not publish
estimates of business fixed investment excluding these categories so I do my own Tornqvist approximation using the
BEA data—calculating that it grew 0.7 percent for 2019.
6
Figure 4
The macroeconomic data over the last year has been affected by many factors: the 2017 tax law,
the large spending increases in 2018 and 2019, the tariff increases, changes in the price of oil, a
longer-term trend of increased investment in software, and other changes in the domestic and
global economy. It is impossible to extract the signal of the causal impact of the 2017 tax law
from all of the noise of the other factors. Moreover even if we could do this signal extraction for
2018 and 2019 it would not tell us about the longer-term impacts of the tax law, which could be
larger than the 2018 and 2019 effects (as capital increases accumulate over time) or smaller than
the 2018 and 2019 effects (as temporary stimulus wears off and the economic costs of deficits
rise).
Nevertheless, we can try to tease out the causal effects of the tax law on investment and what
they might mean for longer-term economic growth. The macroeconomic data to date appear to
rule out the immediate and large effects on investment that were predicted by many cheerleaders
of the 2017 tax law and provide no reason to update the ex ante projections of minimal longer-
term growth effects made by a range of economic modelers.
Analyses by both the Congressional Research Service and the Penn Wharton Budget Model have
reached a similar conclusion, finding that there is little reason to believe the 2017 tax law
substantially boosted investment to date and that to the degree some components of investment
initially rose it was more due to rising oil prices than changing tax laws (Gravelle and Marples
2019; Arnon 2019).
Other macroeconomic factors have had offsetting effects and do not explain the weakness of
investment
Although it is impossible to precisely disentangle the 2017 tax law from the many other factors
affecting the macroeconomy in 2018 and 2019, it appears that most of the other unexpected
macroeconomic developments were, on balance, positive. This suggests that they do not explain
7
away the weak performance of investment. In particular, three broad factors likely affected
investment in different directions:
1. Deficit-financed fiscal stimulus temporarily boosted economic growth in 2018 and 2019
by about ¾ percentage point annually. The combination of the tax cuts in the 2017 tax
law and the spending increases in the Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 and 2019
temporarily boosted aggregate demand and thus temporarily increased growth through a
standard Keynesian channel. This increase in growth would be expected to boost
investment through an accelerator mechanism but with all of these effects being
temporary. Overall, as shown in Figure 5, my estimates find that the stimulus was
substantial and more attributable to the spending increases than the tax cuts. Moreover, it
is scheduled to diminish in 2020 and reverse in 2021.
Figure 5
2. Monetary policy has been more accommodative than expected. At the time the tax law
passed, Federal Reserve officials projected that the federal funds rate would be 2.7 at the
end of 2019. Instead it was 1.625. The change in the stance of monetary policy has been
reflected in long-term interest rates, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note currently
at around 1.6 percent—much lower than the 3.4 percent that had been expected for 2020.
This unexpectedly loose monetary policy should have led to investment increases
unrelated to the 2017 tax law.
3. Tariff increases temporarily reduced economic growth, plausibly by something like ¼
percent of GDP. The escalation of tariffs against China and the rise in trade tensions in
general had a temporary and countervailing negative impact on growth. A range of
macroeconomic analysts have put the impact around ¼ percentage point off the annual
GDP growth rate over this period although there is considerable uncertainty around that
estimate and the temporary negative effects on business investment were likely
proportionately larger.
8
On balance, the combined effect of these three factors, is, if anything, more likely to have
increased investment growth than decreased it.
Other sectoral factors have had offsetting effects and also do not explain the overall weakness of
investment
In addition to the aggregate macroeconomic factors, a number of factors affected particular
sectors—again with some pushing investment up, others pulling investment down, but overall
not changing the larger story about the absence of any evidence of a substantial 2017 tax law-
driven increase in investment.
Table 2 compares the growth rates of several different components of investment in the eight
quarters before and after the tax law passed. The annual growth rate of the overall business fixed
investment category fell by 1.1 percentage point in the period following the law relative to the
period before the law.
Table 2
2015:Q4–
2017:Q4
2017:Q4–
2019:Q4
Business Fixed Investment 3.9 2.8 -1.1
Equipment 3.5 1.7
-1.7
Equipment excl. Oil and Mining 3.4 1.9 -1.5
Oil and Mining Equipment 5.3 -7.4 -12.7
Structures 2.9 -2.3
-5.2
Structures excl. Oil and Mining 2.1 -2.4 -4.5
Oil and Mining Structures 6.3 -2.3 -8.7
Intellectual Property 5.3 7.8
2.4
Software 8.4 11.0 2.6
Research and Development 3.3 5.9 2.5
Entertainment, Literary, and Artistic Originals 2.8 3.9 1.1
Memo:
Equipment and Structures 3.2 0.3
-2.9
Equipment and Structures excl. Oil and Mining 3.0 0.6 -2.3
Oil and Mining Equipment and Structures 6.1 -3.2 -9.3
Percent Change,
Annual Rate
Difference
(p.p.)
Business Fixed Investment Growth Before and After the 2017 Tax Law
Note: Results for some series calculated using Tornqvist approximation.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; author's calculations.
9
Three sectoral stories are notable:
1. The rapid growth in software and the substantial pickup in investment in research and
development boosted investment in the last two years for reasons unrelated to the tax law.
These changes were driven by the changing business use of technology in the economy,
and has nothing to do with the 2017 tax law, which actually raised effective tax rates on
many of these types of investment (research and development was previously expensed,
so the main impact of the reform’s rate reduction was to reduce the value of the interest
deduction).
2. Oil prices levelling off and declining in 2018 and 2019, subtracted from investment for
reasons unrelated to the tax law. Investment in oil and mining equipment and structures
rose in the period preceding the law and fell in the period following the law. This shift
was more due to rises and falls in the price of the oil than any changes in tax incentives.
Excluding investment in oil and gas, however, investment growth still slowed
considerably in the period following the tax law.
3. The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX reduced investment for reasons unrelated to the
tax law. This has reduced investment in the airline sector with negative spillovers to other
sectors as well. It is unlikely, however, to be large enough to explain the broad-based
weakness in equipment and structures investment in 2019, with investment declining in
every major equipment and structure sector reported by BEA with the exception of
information processing equipment.
Overall, the decline of business investment growth in the period following the tax cut relative to
the period preceding it is similar whether looking at the headline number or when adding and
subtracting special factors. Moreover, the components of investment that saw the largest
effective marginal rate reductions under the 2017 tax law have fallen since the law went into
effect while the components that saw little change or even increases in their effective marginal
rates have seen increases—also suggesting little reason to believe the effective rate reductions
provided a big impetus for additional investment in the last two years.
Changes in the composition of income, tilted more towards corporate profits and high-income
individuals
The tax law has not perceptibly changed the total amount of GDP but it has changed its
distribution. Figure 6 shows the percentage change in after-tax income from the 2017 tax law
itself as estimated by the Tax Policy Center. It shows that the law barely increased incomes for
the bottom quintile and resulted in twice the income gains for the top 1 percent relative to the
middle quintile, increasing after-tax inequality.
10
Figure 6
The Tax Policy Center estimates reflect just the tax law itself. Eventually the revenue losses
would need to be made up in some manner, potentially including spending cuts. A preview of
what this might be like is provided by the CBO (2019b) projections of the distribution of income
before and after taxes and transfers in 2021. CBO shows that, from 2016 to 2021, incomes after
taxes and transfers are projected to rise more quickly than those before taxes and transfers for
households at the top of the distribution while the converse is true for households at the bottom.
Overall CBO’s estimates imply an even more regressive set of changes in after-tax income
beyond those resulting from the 2017 tax law, such as administrative changes designed to restrict
low-income programs. All told, relative to the continuation of 2016 tax-and-transfer rates, after-
tax incomes fall for the bottom two quintiles and rise sharply for the top 1 percent, as shown in
Figure 7.
Figure 7
11
No reason to increase the minimal growth forecasts based on ex ante estimates of the law
Nothing in the performance of the economy since the 2017 tax law provides a reason to believe
that its effects were larger than initially estimated; if anything the data would suggest some
downward revision in the ex ante forecasts. Overall both GDP and investment underperform the
forecast. As discussed above, this underperformance is for many reasons, but at the very least it
provides no basis for believing the tax law had larger effects than originally anticipated.
The ex ante estimates of the impact of the 2017 tax law on growth over the next decade were
based on economic analysis of what its impact likely would be. A variety of public and private
sources had largely convergent estimates, generally showing growth effects between 0 and 0.05
percentage point per year (for context, reported growth rates of, for example, exactly 2.1 percent
would still be reported as 2.1 even with these increases because they round to less than 0.1
percent). Any of these effects would be essentially undetectable. Table 3 shows a range of
estimates, including my own estimate in a paper with Robert Barro that the law as passed would
lead to an increase in the real growth rate of GDP of 0.02 percentage point per year after
accounting for crowd out (Barro and Furman 2018).
Table 3
All of these estimates are for GDP and thus overstate the impact on well-being of people,
possibly even getting the sign reversed, for three reasons. First, the law results in a higher level
of capital and thus a higher level of depreciation—which is counted in GDP but is not a source of
income for people. Second, the law results in increased foreign borrowing that will eventually
need to be repaid—coming out of Americans’ future incomes. The statistic that adjusts for these
two factors is national income and its increase would be even smaller than that of GDP and
might even be negative (Furman 2018). Finally, none of these data reflect the cost associated
with the reduced consumption from increased saving and the reduced leisure from increased
work, incorporating these would lower the benefits even more.
Barro and Furman (2018) 0.02 to 0.04
Congressional Budget Office (2018b) 0.06
Goldman Sachs
1
0.07
International Monetary Fund
1
-0.01
Joint Committee on Taxation (2017b) 0.01 to 0.02
Macroeconomic Advisers
1
0.02
Moody's Analytics
1
0.04
Penn Wharton Budget Model (2017) 0.06 to 0.12
Tax Foundation (2017) 0.29
Tax Policy Center (2017) 0.00
Summary of Macroeconomic Analyses of the 2017 Tax Law
Note:
1
Annual changes as reported in CBO (2018b). Tax Policy Center analysis
published by Page et al. 2017. Based on sources listed and author's calculations.
Increase in Annual
Growth Rate (p.p.),
2017–2027
12
Point #4: A better approach could both increase revenue and encourage more investment
and innovation
Congress should be working on a tax reform that would genuinely improve the tax system—
increasing revenue while promoting economic growth wherever possible. I recently published a
paper as part of a broader project at The Hamilton Project that outlined the domestic components
of corporate reform that would achieve these goals (Furman 2020). In addition, addressing the
many ways that companies can still avoid taxes by shifting income and in some cases production
overseas should be a high priority.
The key insight motivating my proposal was that much of the economic efficiency associated
with the business tax code depends on the tax base and not on statutory tax rates. With a
reformed tax base that expands incentives for new investment as well as for R&D it is possible to
increase statutory tax rates in a way that raises more revenue from past investment decisions and
their future profit windfalls (i.e., the so-called “supernormal” return) while cutting the tax rate on
the portion of the return that businesses use in evaluating whether to make new investments or
undertake R&D (i.e., the so-called “normal” return). This is the opposite of the traditional tax
reform mantra to broaden the base and lower the rates. Instead, tax policy should improve the tax
base going forward, which would enable more efficient increases in tax rates.
My proposal has five elements: (i) allowing businesses to expense all of their investments in
equipment, structures, and intangibles while eliminating the net interest deduction; (ii) raising the
corporate rate to 28 percent; (iii) requiring large businesses to file as C corporations; (iv)
eliminating other corporate loopholes, including the so-called extenders; and (v) expanding the
research and experimentation tax credit. My paper was focused on the domestic aspects of
reform but the international aspects are also very important, with some specific proposals in
Clausing (2020) that are worth considering.
My proposal would encompass both business income that is currently taxed through the
corporate income tax as well as business income taxed through the individual income tax, which
is used for pass-through corporations like sole proprietors, partnerships, and S corporations.
Thus, the proposal addresses the taxation of business income broadly, and not just taxation of
C corporation income. Given the current ability of companies to choose which system they are
taxed under—an ability this proposal would remove—it is essential to consider business taxation
as a whole, and not just corporate tax reform by itself.
Using the model and parameters I developed with Barro, I estimated that the proposed reform
would increase the annualized GDP growth rate over the next decade by at least 0.2 percentage
point, increasing the long-run level of output in the economy by at least 5.8 percent (both relative
to current law).
4
In addition, if enacted in 2021 it would raise $300 billion in revenue from 2021
through 2030, not counting macroeconomic feedback, and $1.1 trillion with macroeconomic
4
This estimate just reflects changes in the cost of capital and associated changes in investment. It does not reflect
the fact that increases in R&D could also increase total factor productivity growth or the benefits that reducing the
debt-equity difference would have for macroeconomic stability and potentially the longer-run level of output as
well. As such, these growth estimates are a lower bound.
13
feedback. In steady-state, revenue would increase by 1.1 percent of GDP (including
macroeconomic feedback), the equivalent of $3 trillion over the next decade.
This business tax change by itself would be very progressive. Taking into account the specifics
of the tax proposal and the wage effects, the bottom four quintiles would all see increases in their
after-tax incomes while the top 0.1 percent would see a 3.8 percent decline. Also taking into
account the use of the revenue, assuming that it is given out in equal lump sum amounts to every
tax unit, the bottom quintile would see a 9.9 percent increase in its after-tax income, and the
middle quintile would see a 3.5 percent increase in its after-tax income. The total gains to
society, measured by summing the percentage changes for individual households, would be
about a 5.0 percent increase in well-being. These results are summarized in Table 4.
Table 4
Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.
Long-run change in GDP
Change in annual growth rate, 2021–2030
Revenue Effects
Revenue for 2021–2030:
Without macroeconomic feedback ($ billions)
With macroeconomic feedback ($ billions)
Revenue in steady state with macroeconomic
feedback:
As a percent of GDP
Nominal equivalent for 2021–2030 ($ billions)
Distributional Effects
Corporate tax
increase only
With lump
sum transfer
Lowest quintile 1.1%
9.9%
Second quintile 1.3%
5.0%
Middle quintile 1.3%
3.5%
Fourth quintile 1.3%
2.6%
Top quintile -0.1%
0.4%
Top 0.1 percent -3.8%
-3.8%
Average percent change for households
5.0%
Note: Distributional estimates are for 2025.
Source: Furman (2020).
300
1,100
3,000
1.1%
Summary of Estimated Effects of Furman (2020) Business Tax Proposal
Macroeconomic Effects
5.8%
0.24 p.p.
14
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15
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