Operational security management in violent environments
2
Understanding the nature and structure of violence helps in anticipating
where it might erupt, how intense it might be and the likelihood that aid
workers will be caught up in it. This is not, however, an exact science. In
‘traditional’ conflict contexts where the lines of battle are clear, such as
Ethiopia–Eritrea, Angola and the Balkans, threats are easier to anticipate than
in a guerrilla insurgency: while the risk of an unexpected ambush, a hit-and-
run attack, a mine planted on a road or a massacre of civilians exists in both
cases, it is likely to be easier to judge and anticipate in the former than the
latter. The point is to ask questions that will lead to a better understanding of
the particular context in question, going beyond a generalised impression of
violence as always and everywhere the same.
One key question is whether the violence is random and decentralised,
or organised and targeted. Who does it target and why? Does it tend to
be perpetrated by organised armed groups, small groupings or single
individuals, or mobs? Is it motivated by politics or criminal/economic gain or
both? Has the intensity or lethality of violence increased? Raiding (of homes
and offices) and road banditry are two different types of threat, and each can
involve varying levels of violence, ranging from little or none to murder. In
Darfur, many aid organisations noticed an increase in the severity of violence
against their drivers by bandits as the conflict wore on, whereas the majority
of incidents had previously left the victims unharmed physically.
In the Balkans, rape was used as a weapon of ethnic cleansing to demoralise
the opponent. In general, international staffers were at less risk than local
staff. By contrast, in Sierra Leone rape was widespread, less as a tactic of war
and more to subjugate and terrorise civilian communities and to brutalise the
(child) soldiers committing it. In such a setting international staff will be just as
much at risk as national staff, particularly if there is little regard for international
political (Western) opinion. Although few in the reported number of incidents,
violent sexual assault against aid workers in eastern DRC and Darfur indicated
a deliberate targeting/terrorising of the international aid community.
Violence is not always linked to conflict. For example, although Guatemala is
no longer in active conflict, the homicide rate is higher than during the civil
war, and violence, most of it linked to crime, is widespread. Research general
crime patterns in the setting and determine what the principal criminal threats
are (kidnapping, rape, armed robbery, car-jacking). In some places there can
be a seasonality to violence. In Chad, for instance, major attacks tend not
to be launched during the rainy season. Paradoxically, the period just after
the end of a conflict could be particularly difficult to manage as some former
fighters may be left without a source of income.