South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

Approach Paper: Methodology and Process

Independent Evaluation Office

April 2024

Table of contents

Abbreviations .................................................................................................................... ii

1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1

1.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 1

1.2 Country context ......................................................................................................... 1

1.3 Sectoral context ......................................................................................................... 2

2 The Project .................................................................................................................. 4

2.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 4

2.2 Project objectives ....................................................................................................... 4

2.3 Implementation arrangements .................................................................................. 5

3 Project evaluation ....................................................................................................... 6

3.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 6

3.2 Evaluation objectives and scope ................................................................................ 6

3.3 Evaluation methodology ............................................................................................ 6

3.4 Evaluation questions .................................................................................................. 9

3.5 Evaluation team and process ................................................................................... 10

3.6 Evaluation timeline .................................................................................................. 12

ANNEX 1: Evaluation criteria definition ............................................................................ 13

ANNEX 2: Evaluation framework ...................................................................................... 14

ANNEX 3: Evaluation Report Outline ................................................................................ 24

ANNEX 4: Project design and monitoring framework ....................................................... 25

ANNEX 5: Project risk analysis and mitigation measures .................................................. 26

ANNEX 6: Tentative mission schedule .............................................................................. 28

Bibliography and project documents reviewed ................................................................ 29

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

Abbreviations

CSP

concentrated solar power

IDC

Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa

IRP

Integrated Resource Plan

DoE

Department of Energy

GHG

greenhouse gases

gigawatt

IEO

Independent Evaluation Office

IPP

Independent Power Producers

megawatt

NDC

nationally declared commitment

NDP

National Development Plan

photovoltaic

REIPPPP

Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement

Programme

SANEDI

South African National Energy Development Institute

SDG

Sustainable Development Goal

SET

Sectoral Emission Target

SP-IPPPP

Small Projects Independent Power Producer Procurement

Programme

WACC

weighted average cost of capital

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

1. In line with the Evaluation Policy

and the Evaluation Strategy

of the New Development

Bank (NDB), the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) conducts project evaluations of a

number of NDB-financed operations every year.

2. In general, the main objectives of independent project evaluations are to: (i) promote

accountability by the independent assessment of results; (ii) generate lessons learned;

and (iii) present recommendations for improving the quality of similar ongoing and

future operations in the Republic of South Africa and other NDB member countries.

3. The Renewable Energy Sector Development Project in South Africa (implemented from

2020 to 2024) was selected by the NDB Board of Directors for a project evaluation in

2024. IEO plans to present the evaluation report, including the NDB Management

Response, to the Board in June 2024.

4. This approach paper presents the overall design of this project evaluation, including the

evaluation objectives, methodology, key evaluation questions, process and timeframe.

The evaluation framework in annex 2 presents a summary of the evaluation criteria and

the key questions that will be used in conducting this evaluation.

1.2 Country context

5. In recent years, the South African economy has faced several challenges characterized

by fluctuating GDP growth, high unemployment and an energy crisis. In the decade up

to 2022, the average real GDP growth was approximately 1.0%, lower than the Sub-

Saharan Africa average of 3.0%.

Economically, South Africa also contends with one of

the world's highest unemployment rates at approximately 33%, with youth

unemployment exceeding 50%. This has contributed to significant levels of inequality

within the country.

6. In response, in 2012 the Government launched the National Development Plan (NDP)

2030, aiming to reduce inequality, unemployment, and poverty, and establish a

sustainable energy sector by 2030. In addition, the country’s Economic Reconstruction

and Recovery Plan focuses on reducing high unemployment rates, especially among

youth, and promoting private and public employment opportunities.

See: https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/IEO_Final-Evaluation-Policy-1.pdf

See: https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IEO-Evaluation-Strategy-2024-2026.pdf

Source from the World Bank: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview; the World Bank

has pinpointed structural impediments including an inefficient logistics network and frequent power outages,

known as load shedding, as critical barriers to growth.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/southafrica/overview

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

7. From 2024 to 2027, the South African economy is projected to experience modest

growth, with an average annual expansion rate of 1.6%. Additionally, inflation is

expected to decline, thereby enhancing purchasing power and encouraging consumer

spending. Investment in energy production is also forecasted to increase, which could

help alleviate some of the country’s energy constraints.

8. However, persistent power cuts and the poor state of ports and rail freight continue to

adversely affect businesses and exports. Furthermore, the cost of living remains high,

exerting pressure on household budgets, and businesses are reluctant to invest,

deterred by economic uncertainties and a lack of confidence.

9. The Government is prioritizing reforms within the energy and transportation sectors as

critical levers for change, while simultaneously addressing a downturn in governmental

efficacy. Success in these areas, coupled with fiscal discipline, could reduce borrowing

costs, boost business confidence, and, ultimately, accelerate economic growth and job

creation. Collaborative efforts between the public and private sectors to enhance

infrastructure and education promise to drive productivity improvements. Moreover,

South Africa's robust financial sector and rich natural resources lay a solid foundation

for sustained success in established industries such as mining and finance.

Simultaneously, there's burgeoning potential in the fields of information technology

and renewable energy, indicating a bright future for diversified economic growth.

1.3 Sectoral context

10. South Africa is also one of the world’s largest coal producers and uses coal as the main

primary energy source for the economy. In 2022, coal dominated the South African

energy mix, providing 80% of the total system load.

As one of the world’s top 15

greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters,

South Africa is also one of the world’s least energy-

efficient nations.

The energy sector contributes nearly 80% of the country’s GHG

emissions, of which 50% are from electricity generation and liquid fuel production

alone.

If unmanaged, South Africa’s emission levels could grow rapidly by as much as

four times by 2050.

11. In December 2009, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC), South Africa committed to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions

from its emissions growth trajectory by 34% in 2020, and by 42% in 2025. Following on

Source: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Statistics on Power Generation in South Africa for

the first half of 2022 (1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022).

Source: United States Agency for International Development, and the Global GHG Emissions published by the

World Resources Institute https://www.wri.org/

From the website of South Africa National Electricity Efficiency Programme: https://www.gov.za/about-

government/national-electricity-efficiency-programme

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019).

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

this commitment, the National Climate Change Response White Paper (2011) outlined

the target of reducing the country’s annual GHG emissions to a range between 398 and

614 million metric tons of CO

equivalent by 2030. This commitment was translated into

the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from South Africa to the Paris

Agreement on Climate Change 2015. It advocates for South Africa’s transition to an

environmentally sustainable, climate change resilient and low-carbon economy,

through use of renewable energy.

12. The choices for the country’s energy sector have become more difficult given the

country's heavy reliance on coal-fired power plants, which often experience breakdown

due to lack of maintenance, causing frequent unplanned outages that reduce the

amount of electricity available to the grid. Since 2007, South Africa has experienced

multiple periods of load-shedding as the country's demand for electricity exceeds its

ability to supply power. Despite having a technical reserve margin of more than 30%,

South Africa experienced over 330 days of loadshedding in 2023. According to the South

African Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Review, load shedding is expected to detract

two percentage points from the country’s overall economic growth in 2023.

13. Policymakers in South Africa have been mindful of the competing challenges and have

sought to diversify the sources of power generation and reduce the emission levels. The

NDP 2030 is the blueprint for infrastructure development. The NDP lays out a

framework for future power generation in South Africa, while energy policies are driven

primarily by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy’s (DMRE) Integrated

Resource Plan (IRP) 2019.

14. The Government has also initiated Eskom’s Just Energy Transition (JET) to progress the

evolution for transition towards a cleaner and greener energy future. Eskom, the

vertically integrated, state-owned power company, generates approximately 95% of

electricity used in South Africa. About 45% of all end users in South Africa receive their

power straight from the firm, with the remaining 55% being resold by redistributors

(including municipalities). The Government has decided to unbundle the different

services currently offered by Eskom and separate the generation, transmission, and

distribution functions. This is expected to enable the separate companies to identify and

focus on their specific needs independently, improve efficiency and reduce the cost to

the consumer, and bring about greater transparency and accountability.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

2 The Project

2.1 Background

15. The Renewable Energy Sector Development Project is designed to align with South

Africa’s national commitment to advance towards sustainable energy, aiming to reduce

GHG emissions. The Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Limited (IDC),

a national financial intermediary in the country, plays a pivotal role in this shift,

particularly in financing the energy sector and facilitating private sector participation.

16. The NDB Board approved the “Renewable Energy Sector Development Project” in South

Africa on March 31, 2019, with IDC as the borrower and main executing agency. The

proposed NDB financing was in the form of a two-step loan of up to ZAR 1.15 billion to

IDC, which in turn will be on-lent to sub-projects identified by IDC in accordance with

predetermined selection criteria.

17. The NDB loan would finance no more than 50% of the sub-projects’ costs and the total

expected investment should reach no less than ZAR 2.30 billion. NDB classified this

project as a “non-sovereign operation” (NSO), and the loan was processed according to

NDB’s “Policy on Loans without Sovereign Guarantee to National Financial

Intermediaries”. The loan agreement was signed on 6 February 2020 and the project

implementation period is 4 years from 2020 to 2024.

18. The proposed loan required that not less than five sub-projects should be financed by

IDC. At project appraisal, IDC only presented the Redstone Solar Thermal Power Project

(Redstone Sub-project), a 100 MW concentrated solar power (CSP) plant, as an anchor

sub-project to be supported by the NDB loan. About ZAR 750 million (approx. 65% of

the total loan amount) was expected to be allocated to this sub-project. In 2022, IDC

proposed and selected the Scatec sub-project: Scatec 1, 2 and 3 are 150 MW solar PV +

battery power projects which were awarded as part of the Risk Mitigation Independent

Power Producer Procurement Programme (RMIPPPP).

2.2 Project objectives

19. The key objectives of the proposed loan from NDB are to facilitate investments in

renewable energy that can contribute to the improvement of South Africa’s power

generation mix, avoidance of CO

emissions, as well as increase the energy efficiency of

the economy. This aligns with the Government's IRP 2019 and NDP 2030 goals of

lowering GHG emissions.

The project is also expected to contribute to SDG 7 (“Ensure

The National Development Plan 2030, is the main long-term policy framework of the South African

government. It aims to implement the commitments in the National Climate Change Response White Paper

2011 (cut greenhouse gas emissions to a range of between 398 and 614 million metric tons of CO2 by 2030)

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all”), and to SDG 13

(“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”) as set by the United

Nations General Assembly Resolution of September 25, 2015. Beyond that, the project

is also expected to bring additionality in terms of crowding in private sector financing

and increasing availability of long-term funds for the energy sector projects in South

Africa.

20. The output of the project is at least 120 MW of new renewable energy generation

capacity added through IDC lending and at least 5 sub-projects approved and funded by

IDC that use the NDB loan. The project is anticipated to generate approximately 512.2

GWh from clean energy sources and avoid no less than 481,436 tons of CO

emissions

annually, starting from 2024, when the sub-projects are expected to become fully

operational.

2.3 Implementation arrangements

21. IDC will be responsible for identifying, selecting, appraising, financing, and monitoring

sub-projects eligible for NDB funding. The selection of the sub-projects will be based on

the selection criteria devised to allow NDB to determine that each of the sub-projects:

(i) contribute to impact, outcomes and outputs as set in the project’s design and

monitoring framework; (ii) has sufficient level of preparedness; and (iii) is in line with

NDB’s policies on economic and financial analysis, project procurement, and

environmental and social impact management. Before disbursement for every new sub-

project, the IDC must submit documentation to NDB verifying the sub-project's

adherence to these criteria. Apart from this, sub-projects for which IDC’s sub-loan is

above a certain threshold (the “Free Limit”

), will need approval of the NDB. NDB’s

approval will also be needed for all sub-projects assessed as Category A with respect to

an environmental and social impact (according to the NDB Environment and Social

Framework [ESF]).

22. To ensure the additionality of NDB’s loan, the proportion of NDB’s financing is up to

50% of each sub-project’s cost. In accordance with the NDB Policy on Loans without

Sovereign Guarantee to National Financial Intermediaries, on-lending terms and

conditions of sub-projects were determined by IDC in accordance with its existing

framework.

and advocates for South Africa’s transition to an environmentally sustainable, climate change resilient and

low-carbon economy, through use of renewable energy.

Set the threshold at the level of average loan size in IDC’s RE portfolio, which is approx. ZAR 750 million, and

to set the threshold at this level (for reference, this is at approx. 2.6% of IDC’s loan portfolio of ZAR 28.6 billion

and approx. 0.5% of IDC’s assets of ZAR 142 billion)

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

23. IDC will monitor the implementation of the sub-projects and aggregate the results in

project progress reports to be submitted to NDB annually. Additionally, within 12

months after the NDB loan amount has been fully drawn, the IDC will prepare a project

completion report (PCR).

3 Project evaluation

3.1 Background

24. This evaluation was included in the IEO’s Work Programme for 2024, approved by the

NDB Board in November 2023. This is the second project evaluation in South Africa to

be conducted by IEO, following the recent completion in 2023 of the evaluation of the

South Africa Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction and Energy Sector Development

Project. The evaluation was conducted within the overall framework of the NDB

Evaluation Policy,

which was approved by the Board in August 2022, and the NDB

Evaluation Strategy 2024-2026,

approved by the Board in November 2023.

3.2 Evaluation objectives and scope

25. Evaluation objectives. The main objective of this evaluation is to assess the

performance of the project towards achieving its objectives of facilitating investments

in renewable energy that can contribute to South Africa’s power generation mix and

avoidance of CO

emissions. The evaluation is envisaged to derive lessons that can assist

in the design and implementation of future NDB private sector operations, particularly

similar investments in the renewable energy sector in South Africa and other NDB

member countries. This report presents the key findings, conclusions and

recommendations from the NDB loan extended to the project.

3.3 Evaluation methodology

26. The core methodology of the evaluation entailed the use of internationally recognised

evaluation criteria, as followed by the Evaluation Cooperation Group (ECG) of the MDBs

and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The criteria

were deemed as appropriate to the South African context, the project and NDB.

27. The project under review is funded through a loan provided to the IDC, a national

financial intermediary wholly owned by the Government of South Africa. The loan

proceeds will be on-lent by IDC to renewable energy projects (sub-projects) in South

Africa that contribute to the reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, improvement of the

country’s energy sector mix, as well as to the increase of energy efficiency of the

economy.

See https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/IEO_Final-Evaluation-Policy-1.pdf

See https://www.ndb.int/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/IEO-Evaluation-Strategy-2024-2026.pdf

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

28. IDC is a significant financing provider in the renewable energy sector in South Africa

with current exposure of ZAR 14 billion (USD 1 billion) in 24 projects, and has plans to

continue to support this sector. In line with its mandate, the IDC only funds the private

sector (i.e. no direct funding to public sector entities such as state-owned enterprises

and municipalities).

29. It is important to note that the development impact of both the overarching project and

the individual sub-projects aligns with South Africa's national priorities of reducing CO

emissions and transitioning to sustainable energy. Therefore, the proposed evaluation

framework will address perspectives at both dimensions.

30. Furthermore, given the unique structure of this initiative, where the IDC, a state-owned

entity, exclusively funds private sector enterprises for sub-project implementation, the

evaluation approach will be a balanced combination of internationally recognized

evaluation methodologies, criteria, and processes for public sector and private sector

operations, as adopted by the Evaluation Cooperation Group (of the MDBs). In

particular:

(a) The evaluation analysis, at an overarching project level, will address the

internationally recognized evaluation criteria, namely: Relevance, Effectiveness,

Efficiency, Sustainability, and Impact.

A composite score of the overall project

achievement will be determined based on the ratings of the above five criteria.

(b) The evaluation analysis, at the sub-project level, would also cover some

dimensions as applied in assessing initiatives in the private sector viz.: financial

performance, economic sustainability, environmental and social performance.

These would evaluate:

● The sub-project’s financial performance and achievement of business

objectives articulated at approval, including assessing the benefits and costs

associated with the sub-project.

● The sub-project’s economic effects, including measuring the economic

activities of sub-borrowers, the level of sub-project’s economic viability and

financial sustainability.

● The sub-project’s environmental and social performance, by considering the

adequacy of borrower’s environmental & social management systems (ESMS)

in the implementation of the sub-project.

31. These specific dimensions would be integrated within the overall analysis based on the

five evaluation criteria mentioned above.

Please find the definition of the Evaluation Criteria in Annex 1.

These dimensions draw from the ECG ‘Good Practice Standards (GPS) for evaluation of Private sector

Operations’.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

32. Considering South Africa's socio-economic context, the Government places increased

emphasis on specific aspects during evaluations, as detailed in South Africa’s National

Evaluation Policy Framework 2019-2024 (DPME).

This framework underscores the

critical importance of incorporating transformative equity and climate and ecosystem

health (CEH) into evaluation processes. According to the draft DPME guidelines,

transformative equity examines how an intervention's goals, planning, execution, and

outcomes either address or fail to address systemic inequities, aiming to foster a more

inclusive society. Meanwhile, CEH evaluation focuses on the consequences arising from

how intervention activities interact with climate and ecosystems. It also provides

insights on enhancing intervention strategies to positively impact CEH, thereby

increasing the resilience of the intervention and its beneficiaries to climate change.

These considerations have been integrated with the traditional OECD Development

Assistance Committee (DAC) criteria ─ relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, and

sustainability ─ to ensure a comprehensive evaluation.

33. Recognizing NDB’s emphasis on country ownership, the methodology assesses the

project's alignment with South Africa's renewable energy goals and policies, ensuring

support and integration with local needs and frameworks. Adopting a flexible approach,

it addresses unique challenges in South Africa's renewable energy sector, focusing on

local community impact and stakeholder engagement during planning and

implementation, reflecting NDB’s commitment to inclusive development.

34. In addition, the financial aspect of the project is scrutinised through the lens of NDB’s

principles of sustainable and responsible financing. It assesses both the project's

immediate financial viability and its ability to attract further investment, especially from

the private sector. Additionally, the project’s potential as a scalable, replicable model

for other NDB member countries is examined to gauge its broader impact.

35. These specific aspects would also be integrated within the overall analysis based on the

five evaluation criteria mentioned above.

36. In conducting its analysis, as needed, IEO will utilise mixed methods of both quantitative

and qualitative analysis. The use of triangulation techniques will validate the analysis,

leading to the assignment of a performance rating for each criterion on a six-point scale

(see table 1 below). Based on the assessment and ratings of the composite sets of

criteria mentioned above, the evaluation will form a qualitative and holistic

performance judgement of “overall project achievement”.

37. Apart from determining the “overall project achievement”, the evaluation will also

assess and rate additional criteria. These are: (i) NDB and borrower performance (during

See here.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

project design and preparation, implementation, monitoring, and supervision, and

assessing the quality of self-evaluation products); and (ii) NDB’s additionality (see annex

1 for definitions).

Table 1 - Rating scale

Rating

Score descriptor

Highly

Successful

Under the concerned criterion, the project achieved or surpassed all

main targets, objectives, expectations, and results and could be

considered as a model within its project typology.

Successful

Under the concerned criterion, the project achieved almost all

(indicatively, over 80-95 per cent) of the main targets, objectives,

expectations, and results.

Moderately

Successful

Under the concerned criterion, the project achieved the majority

(indicatively, 60 to 80 per cent) of the targets, objectives,

expectations, and results. However, a significant part of this was not

achieved.

Moderately

Unsuccessful

Under the concerned criterion, the project did not achieve its main

targets (indicatively, less than 60 per cent), objectives, expectations,

and results.

Unsuccessful

Under the concerned criterion, the project achieved only a minority

of its targets, objectives, expectations, and results.

Highly

Unsuccessful

Under the concerned criterion, the project achieved almost none of

its targets, objectives, expectations, and results.

3.4 Evaluation questions

38. The key questions that the evaluation will address are listed below. The Evaluation

Framework in annex 2 details out the evaluation criteria and the full set of questions.

The questions are:

• To what extent did the project align with and contribute to the objectives outlined

in South Africa's IRP 2019 regarding the diversification of power generation sources,

especially the integration of renewable energy? Additionally, how effectively did it

support the NDP’s vision for an environmentally sustainable, climate-resilient, low-

carbon economy, while simultaneously advancing broader NDP objectives such as

poverty reduction, decreasing inequality, and creating job opportunities?

• How effectively has the project realised its declared outputs and outcomes? Are

there quantifiable metrics that demonstrate successful implementation?

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

Furthermore, has the project made a significant contribution to the stability of the

local power grid and enhanced energy access and security within the country?

• To what extent has the project contributed to stimulating private sector financing

and increasing availability of long-term funds for the energy sector projects in South

Africa?

• Did the project demonstrate efficiency in its implementation, including timely loan

effectiveness and disbursement processes? How did its costs and financial

management practices compare to benchmarks and expectations set at the project's

outset? Additionally, were the allocated financial and physical resources sufficient

to ensure the project's successful completion and alignment with its intended

objectives?

• Are the operations and maintenance aspects of the project (and sub-projects)

structured to ensure long-term sustainability?

• Is the design of the intervention inclusive, addressing societal inequities and the

need for transformative equity?

• In what ways does the intervention interact with the natural environment? What

natural resources does the intervention depend upon and what impacts do the

intervention’s activities have on CEH?

3.5 Evaluation team and process

39. The evaluation will be conducted under the overall leadership and oversight of Mr.

Ashwani K. Muthoo, the Director General (DG) IEO. Ms. Nidhi Chaudhary, Evaluation

Specialist, IEO will be the evaluation manager and she will be supported by a team of

experts, including Ms. Maliha Hussein (Senior Development and Evaluation Expert) and

Ms. Lungile Mashele (Energy Sector Expert), who will provide critical inputs throughout

the evaluation process. IEO is also planning to invite in-country stakeholders as peer

reviewers as part of the evaluation process. IEO will bear full responsibility for the

contents and quality of the evaluation report and related outputs.

40. The evaluation will comprise the following phases.

(i) Desk review. IEO will conduct an initial literature review. The documents to be

reviewed will include, inter-alia, the project design document, loan agreement and

its amendments, the project progress reports, project performance assessment

reports, and supervision reports, and any other relevant documents made

available by NDB, the borrower, and the implementation agency. The team will

also review policy documents and plans of the GoSA and the private sector on

renewable energy, access to finance for the renewable energy sector and the

trends in this regard in the country. Relevant experience of how other countries

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

might have approached this sector will also be reviewed where relevant. This

phase will be in preparation for the field work.

(ii) Approach paper. Following the initial meetings with key partners and

stakeholders, IEO will refine the draft evaluation approach paper. The revised

approach paper will feature a final schedule for the upcoming main mission. The

approach paper will be finalised and ready for review before the main mission at

the end of March 2024, ensuring all key partners have the opportunity to provide

their valuable comments and suggestions.

(iii) Main mission. The main mission will be conducted from March 25-April 5 2024.

The purpose of the main mission is to conduct visits to selected project sites,

collect additional data and information and documents, and hold discussions with

key informants. At the end of the mission, IEO will organise a wrap-up meeting

with key stakeholders to share its initial observations.

(iv) Drafting of the evaluation report. Building on the desk and field work, IEO will

draft the main evaluation report (see annex 3 for draft table of contents). The draft

will be shared with the National Treasury, IDC and other concerned in-country

partners and NDB Management for comments. The report will be finalised

considering the comments received. An audit trail will be produced illustrating

how the comments received have been incorporated by IEO in the final report.

Once the final report has been prepared by IEO, on that basis, the NDB

Management will prepare a written Management Response to the independent

evaluation, which will be included in the evaluation report once published.

Additionally, the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (DPME) in

South Africa will serve as the official peer reviewer of the evaluation.

(v) NDB Management Response and Board discussion. The evaluation report along

with the Management Response will be considered by the NDB Board in June 2024.

Further information will be provided on this process after consideration by the

Board.

(vi) Knowledge sharing and outreach. In line with the NDB Evaluation Policy and

Evaluation Strategy 2024-2026, the final evaluation report inclusive of NDB

Management Response will be published on the IEO webpages. Evaluation findings

will also be shared through relevant social media and communication instruments.

An “Evaluation Lens” will be prepared and disseminated to a wider audience.

Finally, in cooperation with key stakeholders, IEO will organize a stakeholder’s

seminar in Johannesburg to discuss and share the results and lessons from the

evaluation.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

3.6 Evaluation timeline

41. The evaluation will be conducted from January to June 2024. The following table

captures the specific deliverables, and a corresponding timeline.

Deliverable

Timeline

Draft approach paper shared with key stakeholders

31 January, 2024

Comments received on draft approach paper

10 March, 2024

IEO finalises and shares approach paper based on

comments received

15 March, 2024

Main evaluation mission to South Africa

25 March– 5 April, 2024

Draft evaluation report sent to key stakeholders and

external peer reviewer for comments

April 17, 2024

Comments received on the draft final report

May 3, 2024

Final evaluation report sent to management for

preparation of NDB Management Response

May 6, 2024

Send final evaluation report/management response sent

to corporate secretary’s department for transmission to

the NDB Board

May 17, 2024

Presentation to the Board of Directors

June 4-6, 2024

Stakeholders’ Seminar

June/July, 2024

The timelines are provisional and will be adjusted once the dates of the Board of Directors in June are fixed

by NDB.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

ANNEX 1: Evaluation criteria definition

CRITERIA

DEFINITION

Relevance

The assessment of relevance will examine the extent to which: (i) the

objectives of the project are consistent with beneficiaries’ requirements,

country needs, institutional priorities and partner and donor policies; (ii)

the design of the project is consistent with the objectives; and (iii) the

project design has been (re-) adapted to address changes in the context.

Finally, under relevance, an assessment will also be made of the

compatibility of the intervention with other interventions in a country,

sector or institution.

Effectiveness

The extent to which the project achieved, or is expected to achieve, its

objectives and results at the time of the evaluation, including any

differential results across groups. The analysis of effectiveness involves

taking account of the relative importance of the objectives or results.

Efficiency

Focuses on how well resources are used. In particular, the assessment of

efficiency will examine the extent to which the project delivers, or is likely

to deliver, results in an economic and timely manner.

Impact

The extent to which the project has generated, or is expected to generate,

significant positive or negative, intended or unintended, higher-level

effects.

Sustainability

Assesses whether project benefits will last or are expected to last after

completion. More specifically, sustainability is about whether the net

benefits of the project will continue or are likely to continue.

NDB and borrower

performance

This criterion assesses the contribution of partners to project design,

execution, monitoring and reporting, supervision and implementation

support, and evaluation. The performance of each partner will be assessed

on an individual basis with a view to the partner’s expected role and

responsibility in the project life cycle.

NDB’s additionality

The rating of the NDB’s additionality considers the organisation's value

proposition in providing support to the project. It is based on the

counterfactual assessment of how the project would have (or would not

have) proceeded without NDB support. It should consider all factors

relevant to the role and contribution of the NDB.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

ANNEX 2: Evaluation framework

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

Relevance

• How does the project align with the goals set forth in South Africa’s national Integrated Resource

Plan (IRP) 2019 for the diversification of power generation sources, particularly in terms of

incorporating renewable energy?

• To what extent does the project align with and contribute to South Africa’s Climate Change Bill?

• In what ways will the project contribute to achieving South Africa's greenhouse gas emission

reduction targets as committed under the UNFCCC in 2009?

• How will the project support South Africa in meeting its Nationally Determined Contributions to the

Paris Agreement, specifically in reducing annual GHG emissions to between 398 and 614 million

metric tons of CO

equivalent by 2030?

• How well do the project objectives align with the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 goals for

an environmentally sustainable, climate-resilient, and low-carbon economy, while also addressing

key macroeconomic indicators such as employment, inflation control, economic growth, poverty

reduction, and inequality?

• To what extent is the project aligned with, and will contribute to, NDB’s General Strategy 2022-

2026?

• To what extent does the project contribute to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals,

specifically SDG 7 (Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all)

and SDG 13 (Taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts)?

• Was the project design and monitoring framework sound and to what extent are the performance

indicators being monitored and reported?

• Stated policies and

plans.

• Interviews with

government officials

and borrower.

• Review of project

document to the

Board.

• Review of projects'

initial power output

estimations and

actual monthly

production.

• Review of baseline

and collected data.

• NDB General Strategy

for 2022–2026

• Interviews with NDB

staff and

Management.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• How did the project design for the solar thermal power project, during its appraisal, address the

specific energy challenges in South Africa, such as the electricity crisis, the need for sustainable

energy sources and peak availability?

• Given the importance of technological innovation and efficiency in renewable energy, how did the

project design ensure adherence to best practices and quality standards in solar thermal power at

the appraisal stage?

• How did the project design, at appraisal, anticipate and plan for potential challenges or risks specific

to solar thermal power projects, such as technological advancements, market dynamics, and

environmental considerations?

• Considering the impact of energy policies on different sectors of society, how did the project design

incorporate feedback from a diverse range of stakeholders, including local communities, energy

consumers, and industry experts, during the appraisal?

• In light of South Africa's evolving energy landscape and regulatory environment, how adaptable was

the project design, as evaluated during appraisal, to these changes, especially in terms of

integrating new technologies and complying with regulatory updates?

Effectiveness

• To what extent has the project achieved its stated objectives? Are there measurable outcomes that

indicate successful implementation?

• How effective has the project been in producing the expected amount of electricity?

• Has the project effectively contributed to a reduction in carbon emissions as planned? Is there

quantifiable data to support this?

• Was the project executed within the budgeted cost? How does the cost compare with the benefits

achieved, such as energy output and environmental impact?

• Analysis of results

data and energy mix.

• Review of Sub-

projects' initial power

output estimations

and actual monthly

productions.

• Discussions with Sub-

project operators.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• How satisfied are the stakeholders, including the local community, government, and investors, with

the project's outcomes?

• Has the project effectively contributed to the stability of the local power grid and enhanced energy

security in the country?

• How effectively were the technologies and processes implemented? Have there been any

operational challenges, and how were they addressed?

• To what extent is the project in line with South Africa’s environmental regulations and project social

plans? Was land acquisition and resettlement minimal as anticipated at appraisal?

• To what extent has the project contributed to stimulating private sector and financial sector

investments in the renewable energy sector in South Africa?

• Perusal of relevant

policy documents.

• Interviews with

government officials.

• Physical inspections,

review project

implementation

reports and

interviews with

relevant staff and

stakeholders.

Efficiency

(Include assessing

the sub-project’s

financial

performance and

economic

sustainability)

• Was the effectiveness of the loan achieved within the expected timelines as outlined in the

appraisal, indicating a sound project readiness.

• In light of the cancellation of the initially planned sub-projects under the Small Projects

Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (SP-IPPPP) and the subsequent integration

of alternative sub-projects (Scatec), how adeptly were these transitions handled? Specifically, what

extent of delay, in comparison to the completion timeline set at appraisal, was incurred as a result

of these project adjustments?

• To what extent did the Redstone CSP sub-project experience delays in reaching financial close, and

how did these delays affect the overall project timeline?

• How significantly did the legal delays associated with the Scatec sub-project (150 MW solar +

battery power projects) impact its implementation timeline?

• Were the project performance assessments and progress reports submitted in accordance with the

timelines stipulated in the loan agreement?

• Physical inspections,

review the project

progress reports and

interviews with

relevant staff.

• Review of relevant

documents and

discussions with NDB

staff and IDC.

• Onsite inspections

and interviews with

staff and local

community members.

• Review of financial

documents, audit

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• Did the project consistently meet the loan and financial covenants as set out in the loan agreements

and the appraisal document?

• How did the actual project progress, in terms of construction, procurement, operations and

management activities, compare with the planned targets? Were there lessons learned to enhance

future management efficiency and quality?

• How effectively did the project’s procurement and contracting arrangements facilitate project

delivery? Were they compliant with both the government and NDB’s procurement policies?

• Was the loan amount disbursed according to the planned schedule, and how were cost revisions,

including any overruns, managed throughout the project?

• Were the consultants and project staff utilised effectively within the original contract amounts and

responsibilities? How did their performance impact the overall project efficiency?

• How did the project adapt to external challenges such as COVID-19 constraints, nationwide riots,

and community protests, especially in terms of construction period and logistics? Were there

effective contingency plans for such unprecedented events?

• Were there any necessary amendments to the loan agreements due to project changes or

challenges, and if so, how efficiently were these amendments executed? Particularly, was the time

taken to adapt these changes in the loan agreement reasonable or excessively prolonged in

response to the identified challenges?

• Do the project’s (and sub-project’s) financial performance and internal rate of return compare

favourably with initial projections at the time of appraisal?

• Was the Sub-project’s procurement and contracting procedures and arrangements compliant with

applicable government prescribed standards for the REIPPPP pipeline?

• Was the borrower objective and transparent in its application of sub-project selection criteria?

reports.

• Review of project

performance

assessment reports.

• Review of loan

agreement and its

amendments.

• Interviews with IDC

on procurement

activities.

• Comparative

economic and

financial data,

assessment of

processes and

discussions with

appropriate staff

from NDB, IDC and

sub-borrowers.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

Sustainability

(Include assessing

the Sub-project’s

economic

sustainability,

environmental and

social

performance)

• Are the operations and maintenance aspects of the project (and sub-projects) structured to ensure

long-term sustainability? Are there effective monitoring systems in place, staffed by an experienced

team, with sufficient quality checks to maintain high standards of operation?

• How does the project (and sub-projects) address social aspects like community engagement, local

job creation, and social inclusivity?

• What mechanisms are in place to ensure the project's (and sub-project’s) benefits are distributed

equitably among different community groups, including marginalised or vulnerable populations?

• How adaptable is the project (and sub-projects) to future technological advancements and changes

in the renewable energy sector?

• What strategies are in place to ensure the project (and sub-projects) remains viable and relevant in

the face of future environmental, social, and economic changes?

• Does the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) of the project and its sub-projects exceed the

weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating financial sustainability?

• Did the project (and sub-projects) lead to any resettlement issues, and were they managed

appropriately?

• Were land and water used by the project (and sub-projects) within acceptable and sustainable

limits?

• To what extent does the project (and sub-projects) rely on government subsidies or financial

support, and how would the withdrawal of such support affect the project's (and sub-project’s)

sustainability?

• Had all sub-projects entered power purchase agreements (PPAs) with Eskom, and had they received

payments from Eskom timely?

• Discussion with IDC

staff, Subproject

operators, DMRE.

• Discussion with social

protection experts.

• Discussion with

energy sector and

E&S Environmental

and Social (E&S)

experts.

• Review of project

design reports and

projections.

• Cost benefit analysis,

financial internal rate

of return and WACC

review, if available.

• Discussions with IDC,

Eskom, Subproject

developers, and local

communities.

members.

• Review of NDB E&S

procedures.

Discussions with E&S

staff and consultants.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• What type of systemic changes were facilitated by the project and what is likely to be their

contribution to the overall sustainability of the renewable energy sector and the financing available

for its growth?

• Have all sub-projects (financed by this Project) achieved the targeted EIRR and FIRR above the sub-

project’s WACC?

• Has the project contributed to the sustainability of benefits, especially for end beneficiaries in terms

of access to energy and improved livelihoods and incomes?

• To what extent were the sub-projects compliant with the government’s environmental and social

safeguard regulations? Were consultations held in line with country regulations?

• For the sub-projects, were land acquisition and resettlement activities in compliance with

government policies, rules, and regulations?

• What is the capacity of the borrower and sub-borrowers to monitor compliance with Environmental

and Social (E&S) plans and applicable regulations?

• Were mitigation and compensation for E&S impacts from sub-projects handled in line with the IDC

and NDB’s processes?

Impact

• To what degree has the project diversified and strengthened the power generation mix in South

Africa?

• How effectively did the project contribute to the reduction of national carbon emissions in line with

South Africa's NDC (Nationally Determined Contribution) targets for greenhouse gas emissions by

2030, as anticipated during the project's appraisal phase?

• Review of baseline

and collected data.

• Interview with DMRE,

SANEDI, and other

government officials.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• In what ways and to what extent did the project advance the goals of Sustainable Development

Goal (SDG) 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action)?

• What were the intended and unintended socio-economic impacts of the project, particularly in

terms of employment, poverty reduction, and addressing inequality in the region?

• How significant was the project's contribution towards alleviating the energy crisis in South Africa?

To what extent did the project succeed in generating green electricity and promoting sustainable

energy sources?

• How has the project improved energy access, particularly for underserved or remote communities?

• Is there a social inclusion plan that outlines the expected equity benefits for communities along

with accountability, transparency and inclusion throughout the evaluation process?

• To what extent has the participation or collaboration between stakeholders demonstrated

objectives of transformative equity/principles of inclusion, representativeness, and respect?

• To what extent are the emerging short- and medium-term outcomes pointing to systemic changes

in equity?

• What are the potential impacts of decommissioning the project in the future, and what preventive

measures are in place to mitigate any possible adverse effects?

• Did the project meet all safeguard requirements, and were any new issues identified or unresolved

issues left after project completion?

• How did the project contribute to capacity building and knowledge transfer within the renewable

energy sector in South Africa?

• What role did the project play in enhancing access to finance for the energy sector?

• What role did the project play in fostering innovation and advancing technology in the renewable

energy sector?

• Scrutiny of other

renewable energy

projects in the area

or under the REIPPPP

pipeline.

• Interview with social

protection experts.

• Interview with energy

experts.

• Review of NDB E&S

policy. Interview with

E&S sector experts.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• Has the project influenced policy decisions or led to changes in regulatory frameworks within the

renewable energy sector?

• How has the project influenced local economic development, particularly in terms of job creation

and skills development in the renewable energy sector?

• To what extent has the project attracted additional investments in the renewable energy sector

within South Africa?

• Considering the water usage in solar energy projects, how has the project managed water

resources, and what has been its impact on local water availability?

• How has the project navigated land use and spatial planning challenges?

• Are the objectives of the intervention likely to have a positive or negative effect on climate and eco-

systems health (CEH) and how vulnerable is the intervention to CEH effects, now and in the future?

• Are CEH considerations reflected in the implementation of the intervention?

• What alternatives need to be considered in the design and implementation of the intervention that

are more CEH-friendly and resilient?

• What challenges and solutions have emerged in integrating solar energy into the national grid,

including energy storage and balancing?

NDB and Borrower

performance

• Was the loan disbursed in a timely manner following the loan agreement between the borrower

and the NDB?

• How proactive and diligent was NDB and the borrower in facilitating and approving loan

amendments?

• Were loan amendments executed promptly in response to the changes that necessitated them?

• Interviews with NDB

staff and IDC officials.

• Review of results

framework, progress

reports, and

effectiveness of KPIs.

• Review all related

project documents.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• Did NDB put in place a knowledge management and learning plan to document and share lessons

learned, and has this been implemented?

• Did NDB and the borrower effectively ensure compliance with the loan covenants?

• How comprehensive was the loan agreement in detailing outputs, outcomes, and the agreed loan

amount?

• What was the quality of the project design document submitted to the Board? Was the preparation

process participatory and did it align with the Loan Agreement?

• How robust is the Design and Monitoring Framework in the project design document?

• Did the NDB conduct regular project review and supervision missions to monitor the progress of the

project and its sub-projects?

• Did the NDB adhere to the standard template for project progress reports?

• What was the quality of the project progress reports provided by the NDB?

• After initially presenting only one sub-project to the NDB, were subsequent sub-projects adequately

selected and aligned with the criteria by the borrower?

• Did the borrower ensure compliance with the NDB's procurement policy?

• Was the borrower cooperative in facilitating site visits and meetings during NDB missions?

• Did both the NDB and the borrower ensure that the project and its sub-projects complied with

South Africa's Environmental & Social (E&S) standards, in line with NDB's Environmental & Social

Framework?

• Did the borrower maintain an effective monitoring and evaluation system to track project progress?

• Was the operations and maintenance team adequately skilled and effective?

• Throughout the project, did the borrower consult with energy sector authorities to integrate

technological advancements?

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project.

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation Questions

Methods/ Sources

• Were progress and assessment reports by the borrower completed and submitted on schedule?

• What was the quality of the progress reports submitted by the borrower?

NDB’s

Additionality

• What was NDB’s financial additionality overall?

• Would IDC have been able to mobilise sufficient financing for the project without NDB involvement?

• Was NDB catalytic in mobilising funding and facilitating private sector investment into grid

connected renewable energy generation, or was it merely helping complete the financing package?

• Was NDB engagement important to reduce risks or to provide comfort to other investors and

lenders?

• What was NDB’s non-financial additionality overall?

• Was NDB participation important to the allocation of risk and responsibilities between IDC and the

sub-borrowers?

• Did NDB’s knowledge and expertise strengthen project design and IDC’s functioning and capacity

building?

• Perusal of relevant

policy documents,

and scrutiny of other

renewable energy

projects in the area

or under the REIPPPP

pipeline.

• Review of renewable

energy projects in the

same provinces or

under the REIPPPP

pipeline.

• Discussion with the

project design team

and stakeholders.

• Review of project

documents and

interviews.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

ANNEX 3: Evaluation report outline

Acknowledgement

1 page

Preface by DG IEO

1 page

List of Acronyms

1 page

Executive Summary

3-4 pages

Management Response

2-3 pages

Background

● Country Context

2 pages

● Sector, project, and local Context

2 pages

● Government/ local initiatives for climate change

1 page

Project Background

● Project objectives

1/2 page

● Project design and components

1 page

● Implementation arrangements

2 pages

● Amendments to the loan agreement

1 page

Evaluation objectives, methodology and process

● Objectives

1/2 page

● Methodology, questions, and rating system

2-3 pages

● Limitations

1 page

● Evaluation process

1 page

Evaluation findings

10 pages

● Relevance

● Effectiveness

● Efficiency

● Impact

● Sustainability

● Overall project achievement

Other assessment criteria

3-4 pages

● NDB and borrower performance

● NDB Additionality

Conclusions and recommendations

● Conclusions

2 pages

● Recommendations

1-2 pages

Annexes

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

ANNEX 4: Project design and monitoring framework

Impact: Investment in sustainable infrastructure in South Africa that will contribute to the

power generation mix and reduction in carbon dioxide emission (in line with South Africa’s

National Climate Change Policy Response White Paper to cut greenhouse gas emissions to a

range of between 398 and 614 million metric tons of CO

by 2030). The baseline figure

(2016) of net GHG emissions is 575 million tons of CO

2eq

. This project is also expected to

contribute to SDG 7 (“Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy

for all”), and to SDG 13 (“Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts”) as

set by the United Nations General Assembly Resolution of September 25, 2015.

Design Summary

Performance Targets /Indicators

Reporting

Mechanism

Outcome

1. Increased energy generated

from renewable energy

sources.

2. Reduction in CO

emissions.

By 2024,

1. At least 512.2 GWh/annum of

energy generated from renewable

sources.

2. Avoided 481,436 tons of carbon

dioxide gas emissions annually

Project progress

reports

Output

1. Construction of new

renewable energy power

plants

2. Increased generation

capacity from renewable

energy sources

By December 2024

1. At least 5 sub-projects approved

and funded by IDC that use NDB

loans. Sub-projects to include the

Redstone Solar Thermal Power

Project and 1 biomass project

2. At least 120 MW of new

renewable energy generation

capacity added through IDC

lending.

Project progress

reports

Key activities with milestones

Inputs

1. NDB and IDC signs the loan agreement.

2. IDC sources and appraises sub-projects starting from 2019 and

ongoing until 2024.

3. IDC administers the sub-loans and monitors the implementation of

the sub-projects.

Financing: ZAR Million

NDB: 1,150

Other Sources (Loans,

Equity: 10,700)

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

ANNEX 5: Project risk analysis and mitigation measures

Risks

Mitigation Measures

Sector risk

(medium)

Eskom is the off taker for the Project and other renewable energy

projects under the REIPPPP, where the IDC has an exposure of about

ZAR 14 billion. Eskom’s potential financial difficulties may affect its

ability to honour these PPAs. Renewable energy projects under the

REIPPPP are underpinned by an Implementation Agreement under

which GoSA guarantees the obligations of Eskom under the PPAs

thereby mitigating the payment risk.

Credit risk (low)

IDC has a good financial standing and sound financial management.

Implementation

risk

(medium)

While the financial close for the anchor sub-project (Redstone) is

targeted for April 30, 2019, a potential funding gap could lead to a

delay in achieving the same. Financing plan for the Small Projects

Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (SP-IPPPP)

projects is also yet to be firmed up and, therefore, there is limited

visibility on the financial close date for the same.

A bulk of sub-projects are expected to be implemented by private

companies, which makes the sub-projects difficult to coordinate. Risk is

partially mitigated by IDC having lender technical advisors, who

monitor project implementation.

Financial

management

risk (low)

IDC has a sound financial management system and a due level of

transparency and supervision.

Sub-project credit

risk

(medium to high)

Most of sub-projects are financed on a non-recourse project finance

basis.

The projections for the cash flows of the sub-projects are

conservative (using P90 case), and they are structured with

performance and construction delay guarantees to minimise risk.

Procurement

(low)

The sub-project entities to be supported through the NDB loan are

expected to be private companies hence procurement for these

projects does not bear risks associated with public procurement and

public finances.

Environment,

social &

reputational risk

The projects to be funded using the NDB facility are within the

renewable energy sector, so likely to be Category B. Support for any

category A projects will require prior approval from NDB.

Non-recourse finance is a type of commercial lending that entitles the lender to repayment only from the

profits of the project the loan is funding and not from any other assets of the borrower.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

Risks

Mitigation Measures

(medium)

The Redstone Sub-project may result in social risks and tensions with

local communities during construction, related to influx of non-local

labourers and competition with the locals for employment and

economic benefits. This risk will be managed through country system

and project specific management programs, including socioeconomic

development programs targeting to promote local employment and

procurement. Other sub-projects are likely to have similar risks on a

smaller-scale.

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

ANNEX 6: Tentative mission schedule

Date

Weekday

City

Purpose

25th March, 2024

Monday

Postmasburg

(Northern Cape

Province

(1) Site visit to Redstone Solar Thermal

Power Sub-project, (2) meeting with the

project manager, HSE manager, and local

community members, (3) meeting with

Independent Development Corporation

(IDC) of South Africa

26th March, 2024

Tuesday

Pretoria,

Sandton

Meeting with (1) National Energy

Regulator of South Africa (NERSA), (2)

Department of Mineral Resources and

Energy (DMRE), (3) Independent power

producer procurement programme (IPPP)

office, (4) NDB Africa Regional Centre staff

27th March, 2024

Wednesday

Pretoria,

Sandton

Meeting with (1) South African Monitoring

and Evaluation Association (SAMEA), (2)

International Finance Corporation (IFC)

March, 2024

Thursday

Centurion,

Pretoria

Meeting with the (1) African Development

Bank (AfDB), (2) National Treasury

2nd April, 2024

Tuesday

Sandton

(1) Meeting with the Eskom

3rd April, 2024

Wednesday

Sandton

(1) Meeting with South African National

Energy Development Institute (SANEDI)

4th April, 2024

Thursday

Postmasburg

(Northern Cape

Province)

(1) Site visit to Scatec Solar and Battery

Power Sub-project, (2) meeting with the

field engineer, technical manager, HSE

manager, O&M manager, VP financial asset

manager

5th April, 2024

Friday

Pretoria

(1) Meeting with the Department of

Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation

(DPME)

April, 2024

Thursday

Remote

Presentation of the preliminary findings of

the evaluation mission to IDC and NDB ARC

teams

South Africa: Renewable Energy Sector Development Project

Bibliography and project documents reviewed

Section A - NDB’s Policies, Guidelines and General Strategies

● New Development Bank Policy on Partnerships with National Development Banks,

December 2015

● New Development Bank Policy on Loans without Sovereign Guarantee to National

Financial Intermediaries, January 2016

● New Development Bank Environment and Social Framework, March 2016

● NDB Project Implementation Guidelines, April 2018

● New Development Bank General Strategy for 2022-2026: Scaling Up Development

Finance for a Sustainable Future, May 2019

● New Development Bank General Strategy for 2022 – 2026, July 2022

● New Development Bank Evaluation Policy - August 2022

● New Development Bank Evaluation Strategy 2024-2026, November 2023

Section B - Project Documents

● Project Document to the Board (PDB) for the Renewable Energy Sector Development

Project, March 2019

● Approved Project Summary of Loan to the IDC (19ZA03)

● NDB-IDC Loan Agreement, February 2020

● First Amendment to the Loan Agreement, February 2021

● Second Amendment to the Loan Agreement, October 2021

● NDB Project Progress Report, October 2020

● NDB Project Progress Report, November 2021

● NDB Project Progress Report, October 2022

● NDB Project Progress Report, October 2023

● IDC Project Performance Assessment, November 2021

● IDC Project Performance Assessment, October 2022

● IDC Project Performance Assessment, September 2023

● Note IDC waiver cleared RMD and Legal, September 2022

● Redstone LTA Technical CM Report 7 Q1 2023, May 2023

● EHS IBIS_BII_Scatec Kenhardt Solar PV ES Monitoring Report, July 2023

● Redstone Monitoring Report: Jan23-Jun23, August 2023

● DPME Evaluation Guideline 2.2.24. Equity Guidelines, December 2022

● DPME Evaluation Guideline 2.2.25. CEH guideline, December 2022