pivot toward boosting investment. This includes
public infrastructure, ‘green’ investment and, to
a lesser extent, incentives to support private
investment and consumption. These support
measures will be spread over a longer period
than the acute phase.
This article focuses on the fiscal response during the
acute phase and measures that affect government
spending and revenue (i.e. the direct fiscal
response), as opposed to indirect (off-budget)
measures that do not have an immediate effect on
the budget (such as loan guarantees). The first
section examines the size and composition of fiscal
responses around the world. This is followed by a
discussion of its effects on labour markets, private
incomes, economic activity and governments’ fiscal
sustainability. The article concludes with a brief
outline of policy measures largely intended for the
recovery phase.
[2]
The fiscal response to the COVID-19
pandemic was the largest in peacetime
Most economies have yet to move beyond the
acute phase of the fiscal response. These direct
measures, including those that are expected to
persist into early 2022, have ranged from 5 to
24 per cent of 2019 GDP in advanced economies.
Authorities in emerging market economies have
provided smaller, yet still significant, direct fiscal
support which has been equivalent to between
1 and 9 per cent of GDP (IMF 2021). For many
economies, this has contributed to the largest
single-year increase in the government debt-to-
GDP ratio during peacetime (Graph 1).
Fiscal support in the acute phase of the downturn
was initially delivered rapidly, and in large part was a
response to the effects of public health measures
(such as mobility restrictions) on economic activity.
The first wave of fiscal measures was delivered
between February and April 2020 (Graph 2). As the
first country to be affected by the COVID-19
outbreak, China was the first to announce
significant fiscal support measures (in February).
This was followed shortly thereafter by other
economies in Asia, and then economies in the rest
of the world as the pandemic spread and strict
public health measures were imposed. Fiscal
measures were expanded and enhanced rapidly
throughout April as the severity of the pandemic,
and the extent of the economic damage it was
causing, became more apparent.
Governments in advanced economies have
demonstrated flexibility in their fiscal response. The
majority of fiscal measures had been designed to be
short lived, often just a few months in duration, but
repeated infection outbreaks, and associated public
health controls, prompted fiscal authorities to
extend measures further than originally envisaged.
Many programs are still providing significant
support to the economy. In emerging economies,
fiscal support was frontloaded in the first half of
2020, but despite significant subsequent
resurgences of infections, authorities were (or at
least felt) constrained in their ability to continue
extending large scale fiscal support.
The size of fiscal support has varied across
economies
The size of direct fiscal support has varied across
economies because of differences in automatic
stabilisers, pre-pandemic fiscal space and decisions
by some countries to implement sizeable indirect
fiscal measures instead. Automatic stabilisers are
government policies that automatically adjust
government spending and revenue to support
economic activity through different stages of the
business cycle. For example, during economic
downturns, government outlays naturally increase
as more people receive unemployment benefits
(which support household incomes and consump-
Graph 1
2020200019801960194019201900
0
50
100
%
0
50
100
%
Government Gross Debt-to-GDP
Emerging economies
Advanced economies
World
War II
World
War I
Sources: IMF; RBA
THE GLOBAL FISCAL RESPONSE TO COVID-19
BULLETIN – JUNE 2021 101